NORTHAMPTON — Gov. Charlie Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito both announced Wednesday that they won’t be running for governor in 2022, transforming the landscape of the gubernatorial election.
“The campaign started today,” said Tatishe Nteta, associate professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Nteta, a director for the UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll, said Baker’s popularity, particularly among many typically Democratic voters, would have made the Republican favored in next year’s election, with the poll last putting his approval rating at a respectable 56%.
At the same time, Nteta said the norm in Massachusetts is for governors to serve no more than two terms, with no governor having been elected for three consecutive times.
“In that sense, it’s not surprising,” he said.
Baker called the announcement “a very complicated and difficult decision” at an afternoon press conference with Polito.
“We both love the work. We love the people and we love the experience that comes with this, and the opportunity to help communities and to help people build bigger and stronger possibilities,” Baker told reporters at the State House.
Polito said she’s not interested in running for the top spot.
“My whole idea of running with the governor was to come into office with the governor, to serve as a team with the governor, and to finish with the governor,” Polito said.
Some local legislators found Wednesday’s announcement unexpected, while others were not surprised.
State Rep. Paul Mark, D-Peru, said he was not expecting the news.
“I was surprised to hear that the governor was not actually seeking a third term,” he said. “And I was borderline shocked that the lieutenant governor isn’t running for lieutenant governor or governor — a major surprise.”
Mark said his shock stems from Baker’s continued popularity. But Mark also recognized Baker’s tenure has included two years of a global pandemic, and suggested this extraordinary circumstance may have influenced the governor’s decision.
“I respect that,” Mark said.
State Rep. Susannah Whipps, I-Athol, said she “wasn’t terribly surprised by today’s announcement,” having heard whispers about Baker’s decision. She said “COVID has really kicked everybody’s butt” and the governor’s announcement means he and Polito will be able to focus, without the distraction of a reelection campaign, on handling the billions of federal dollars coming into the state as pandemic relief money.
A Republican until 2017, Whipps is now the only independent in the Massachusetts Legislature. She said she supported and voted for Baker in 2010, when he ran unsuccessfully for governor, in 2014, when he won the gubernatorial race, and in 2018, when he was reelected.
“And I would have been a Charlie Baker supporter in 2022, also,” she said.
Like Mark, UMass pollster Nteta expressed surprise that Polito is not running, as he said it seems she was groomed for the position.
“That, to me, is actually the more shocking development,” he said.
Nteta said Polito may have decided against seeking the governorship because she feared a Republican primary, or a match-up with Attorney General Maura Healey
Healey has not formally entered the governor’s race, but Nteta said signs point to the Democratic attorney general throwing her hat into the ring.
“She’s been taking a wait-and-see approach,” he said. “She’s been angling to run for this position.”
So far, a number of Democrats have already announced their candidacies, including Harvard professor Danielle Allen, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz and former state Sen. Ben Downing.
On the Republican side, former state representative Geoff Diehl has declared his candidacy for governor.
Matt Szafranski, editor in chief of Western Mass Politics and Insight, said he was “not surprised” at Baker’s decision, saying there has been a sense for some time that eight years was enough for the governor.
State Rep. Lindsay Sabadosa, D-Northampton, threw her support behind Chang-Diaz in the governor’s race well before Baker’s announcement.
“Sonia is definitely a political wonk,” Sabadosa said.
She said she’s also backing her for attention to detail and coalition-building skills.
Sabadosa said it’s interesting that Polito isn’t running, given that the lieutenant governor has raised a substantial amount of money.
She also said a Democratic governor would be able to set the wheels in motion for single-payer health care in Massachusetts.
Similarly, Mark said Baker’s decision is an excellent opportunity to once again get a Democrat into the governor’s mansion and to get more progressive legislation passed, with the chance of a veto less likely. Chang-Diaz and Downing have legislative experience, which Mark said is important.
Szafranski said that, aside from Healey, he doesn’t see many people who haven’t yet declared having the ability to mount a successful Democratic run, given that caucuses will start in February.
“It’s going to be very hard for anyone other than Maura Healey to get into the race now,” he said.
Two other people who Szafranski did say could mount a challenge at this point and haven’t declared are former congressman Joe Kennedy III and former Boston mayor Marty Walsh, now secretary of labor in the Biden administration.
“There’s a sense now that the (Democratic) primary could be tantamount to election,” he said.
For his part, Nteta said that the directions of the Republican and Democratic parties in the state will be determined in the governor’s race.
“We’re going to have a really interesting election,” he said.
State Sen. Jo Comerford, D-Northampton, has not yet backed anyone for governor, although she is supporting state Sen. Adam Hinds, D-Pittsfield, for lieutenant governor.
“Excellent people are already in the race,” she said.
Comerford also said she’s looking for the next governor and lieutenant governor to understand the unique challenges and assets of Western Massachusetts.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this article.