In a perfect world the Triple Crown would be three evenly spaced races composed of the Kentucky Derby in May, the Belmont Stakes in June and the Travers Stakes in August. Without ample time to recover from the grueling 1¼-mile run at Churchill Downs, trainers often hold their horses out of the Preakness Stakes.
Others have little choice but to race their fleet-footed stars. Bob Baffert’s undefeated Justify won the Kentucky Derby and is easily the best of any except for Chad Brown’s Good Magic. Both colts have won over $2 million; the remaining six contenders have yet to earn a quarter of that.
On paper, today’s Preakness would result in the third-lowest win and exacta payouts since 1978 when Affirmed paid $3 and the exacta (with Alydar) returned $4. That was a jackpot compared to 1973 Preakness when Secretariat paid $2.60 and the exacta (with Sham) paid $3.
Despite weakening down the stretch, Brown’s chestnut colt appears to be the only horse with a hint of a chance. He barely held on for second at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, but today’s race is a half-furlong shorter than the Run for the Roses.
Just when I thought the Justify-Good Magic tandem was a lock, along came Tom Amoss to muck up the stall. “Not looking to ruffle anybody’s feathers,” he told the Washington Post, “but the last half-mile of the Kentucky Derby was :53 and change. It’s hard to feel off that race that the Preakness isn’t wide-open.”
Amoss is having a terrific year, sending out 30 percent winners, but the brown 3-year-old colt he saddled in the Kentucky Derby, Lone Sailor, was a well-beaten eighth.
Justify’s 2½-length win at 5-2 odds recalls the old saw, “If you missed the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.” Therein lies the rub of risking a lot to win a little, or betting a little with hardly any chance of winning a lot, but that’s horse racing.
Greenfield’s John Dobrydnio said, “It just seems so simple to me until I start thinking if something happens. Sporting Chance had the speed to win the Hopeful (at Saratoga), and that Quip, everything went his way with the draw. Could it really be this easy, but it never is. I’ll take Sporting Chance and hope for a bomb.”
The first race on the Pimlico card is at 10:30 a.m., and Hinsdale OTB will be open for business. Television coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. on NBCSN and switches to NBC at 5 p.m. The cameras will cut away from the trackside folly to show the races, starting with the $200,000 Chick Lang at 2:45 followed by four more stakes races up to the Preakness at 6:20 p.m.
And away we go…
Post (Odds) Starts W-P-S; Last/Best Beyer; Earnings
1. (12-1) QUIP (5-3-1; 92/94; $482,800)
Rodolphe Brisset/Florent Geroux
Well-traveled colt visits his fifth track in six starts, including Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn Park, winning the TB Derby and was a well-beaten second to Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby. Pimlico’s narrow track and sharp turns favor early speed horses that draw inside post positions.
2. (15-1) LONE SAILOR (9-1-3-1; 89/95; $334,237)
Thomas Amoss/Irad Ortiz Jr.
Lone win was in the Saratoga slop eight races and nine months ago, but the Beyers jumped from average to a 95 while losing the La. Derby by a neck. His next start was at the muddy Kentucky Derby where he fnished eighth at 25-1 odds and digressed to a 77 Beyer. “Who knows how much the slop had to do with that,” said Amoss. “I’m not saying Lone Sailor is better than those horses, but he had a bad enough trip in the Derby that he deserves another shot.” Only four horses in 34 years have won the Preakness that didn’t race in the Kentucky Derby, and that gives him a leg up on the other longshots. Gets a top jock looking to improve his Triple Crown scorecard.
3. (30-1) SPORTING CHANCE (7-2-1-1; 77/91; $409,790)
D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras
Much was expected of this $575,000 yearling purchase after back-to-back wins last summer at Saratoga, but he’s yet to win in four tries as a 3-year-old. Sent off at 8-1 in the Blue Grass he veered in down the stretch and was dropped from third to fourth. Lukas has won six Preakness Stakes, most recently with Oxbow in 2013.
4. (30-1) DIAMOND KING (6-4-0-1; 84/84; $222,600)
John Servis/JJ Castellano
Trainer John Servis stretched his sprinter to 1 1/8 miles on April 21 and he responded with a half-length win in the $125K Frederico Tesio Stakes. Although it’s considered a Preakness prep for local steeds, nary a Tesio winner has scored in the Preakness.
5. (3-1) GOOD MAGIC (6-2-3-1; 99/100; $2,225,000)
Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz
A week after his colt’s runner-up finish to Justify in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Chad Brown said, “The horse is sound. He looks good.” Good Magic looks to be the only horse in the field that can beat Justify, but when Brown said “There’s money to be made” is he referring to the $900,000 winner’s share, the $300,000 runner-up money, or his other horses entered on today’s stakes-filled card?
6. (20-1) TENFOLD (3-2-0-0; 92/92; $124,200)
Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.
Has the fewest starts and least earnings of any horse in the field, but Asmussen won here with Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and with this colt’s sire Curlin in 2007. Unraced as a 2-year-old, he won back-to-back starts at Oaklawn before fading to fifth in the Arkansas Derby.
7. (1-2) JUSTIFY (4-4-0-0; 103/107; $2,098,000)
Bob Baffert/Mike Smith
Chestnut colt with the unblemished record faces what will probably be the softest field in his racing career. Smith’s last Preakness win was on Prairie Bayou in 1993. Colt’s Beyers are outstanding, giving Baffert ample opportunity to go to Belmont and win the Triple Crown.
8. (20-1) BRAVAZO (9-3-1-1; 91/93; $436,528)
D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez
Calumet Farms won here with Orb in 2013, Lukas’s sixth Preakness win. Colt has saddle will travel; this is his sixth racetrack and sixth different rider in nine starts. Saez gets his first shot in the Preakness.
Picks: 5-7-3-2
RACING STAFF PICKS:
Chip Ainsworth: Good Magic
Jay Butynski: Quip
Jeff Lajoie: Justify
Mark Durant: Justify
Longshot John Dobrydnio: Sporting Chance
Sources: Daily Racing Form, Equibase, AmericasBestRacing.net, Associated Press, Baltimore Sun, Washington post