Good morning!
No horse in today’s Kentucky Derby has gone a mile-and-quarter and few will do it again, but the $3.1 million winner’s share of the $5 million purse, the stud fees and thrill of having a horse in the starter’s gate for the 12th race at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May make it every owner’s dream.
Eight hopefuls in the field of 20 have won at a mile-and-an-eighth but “You’d be amazed how many horses go a mile-and-an-eighth and hit a brick wall,” said five-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Eddie Arcaro.
The railbirds, touts and snake charmers were high on 4-1 morning line favorite Renegade until he drew the dreaded one post which hasn’t won since Ferdinand in 1986.
Blame it on owner Mike Repole who is 0-for-8 in the Derby and with three scratches including Fierceness, the 2024 favorite. Jockey Irad Ortiz will hit the pedal out of the gate to keep Renegade from getting squeezed and hope his horse has enough gas to break the finish line.
Trainer Brad Cox has three legitimate contenders, including a pair of 6-1 second choices. Further Ado has the highest Beyer Speed Figure (106) in the field and was the Blue Grass winner by 11 lengths. He’ll be ridden by three-time Kentucky Derby winner John Velazquez.
Meanwhile Cox’s Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth winner Commandment is the only horse in the field with back-to-back triple digit Beyers.
Ridden by Luis Saez, the 3-year-old son of Into Mischief has won four straight races since finishing fourth in his maiden voyage last October at Keeneland.
“He’s not a grinder he’s an even tempo type, and horses that run even eighths and quarters [of a mile] are historically ideal for the Derby,” says Louisville podcast handicapper Darren Rogers.
Cox “won” the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun after Medina Spirit failed a drug test days later but Fulleffort could atone for the slight. Installed at 20-1 by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, the grey/roan has three wins and two runnerup finishes in seven starts and Tyler Gaffalione gets the call to snap his 0-for-7 streak on Derby mounts.
Raced on Sunshine
“The strength and the numbers from a talent standpoint come from down in Florida,” said Rogers, referring to Commandment and the Florida Derby’s place and show finishers.
The Puma, trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by Javier Castellano, gave up the lead in deep stretch and finished second by a nose. “Tactical speed and versatility give his rider options and you have to like how his Beyers are trending north,” wrote the Daily Racing Form’s Michael Hammersly, alluding to the colt’s 83-94-100 speed figures.
The Puma is 10-1 in the morning line but show horse Chief Wallabee is 8-1 off the strength of its 89-100-99 Beyers in three career starts. “A smashing recent work and gallop-out had some observers elbowing their way onto his bandwagon,” wrote Hammersly.
Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado won last year’s Kentucky Derby with Sovereignity; bet against them today at your own risk.
Mott’s son Riley has two horses in this year’s Run for the Roses, Albus at 30-1 and Incredibolt at 20-1. The former is coming off a longshot win under Manny Franco in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and the latter scored a four-length win in the Virginia Derby under Jaime Torres at Colonial Downs.
Louisiana Dreaming
“I’m going to use the Louisiana Derby trifecta,” said turf writer Steve Byk, referring to the aforementioned Emerging Market together with longshot runnerup Pavlovian (30-1) under Eduardo Maldonado and Golden Tempo (30-1)who was a length back under Jose Ortiz.
Winner by a head as the 2-1 favorite, Emerging Market is owned by Klaravich Stables — the IBM of the thoroughbred industry — trained by the estimable Chad Brown and will be ridden by Flavien Prat who’s hit the board in six of eight Derby starts. Yet the colt is a tepid 15-1 in the morning line because the last horse to win off two career starts was Leonatus in 1883.
Pavlovian (30-1) by contrast has the most starts in the field but has just two wins and his highest Beyer was a modest 90 last out. Golden Tempo’s Beyers have steadily improved (78-81-84-88) and trainer Cherie DaVaux would be the first woman to saddle a Kentucky Derby winner.
For the record, the Louisiana Derby trifecta paid $286.60 on a $2 wager, but as the saying goes if you missed the wedding don’t go to the funeral.
Baffert the Prodigal Son
Gone were the days when railbirds got the shakes whenever they wagered against a Bob Baffert horse, but he’s baaack. A six-time Derby winner, Baffert was suspended from Churchill Downs for three years after the Medina Spirit scandal. He has two horses in today, a contender and a longshot. Potente (20-1) is a lightly raced colt from the Speedway Stables that finished second in the Santa Anita Derby as the 6/5 favorite, and Litmus Test cost $875,000 at the yearling sale and has earned less than half that in seven starts. No wonder he’s 50-1.
Of Happiness, Longevity and Longshots
Mike Smith won aboard Giacomo in 2005 and Justify in 2018 and at age 59 would be the oldest jockey to win a Run for the Roses with the hat trick on the aptly named So Happy at 15-1.
Churchill Downs handicapper Kevin Kerstein picks Danon Bourbon off the strength of his sire’s fondness for the track’s deep surface. Maxfield was the first horse to win the Alysheba, Stephen Foster and Clark stakes in the same year. “Just saw Danon Bourbon walk off the van this morning and boy is he imposing,” said Kerstein.
Japanese-bred Wonder Dean won the United Emirates Derby and Six Speed was a distant runnerup. They are 30- and 50-1, respectively.
Right to Party (30-1) trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Christopher Elliott was runner-up to Albus in the Wood Memorial. Ten horses have won from his five post, more than from any other post position. … The inability of Intrepido to hit a 90 Beyer in seven starts justifies his 50-1 longshot status, though his best-of-71 bullet going four furlongs in 45-flat gave pause to the railbirds on Sunday.
Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse will have to wait another year to break his 0-for-11 winless slump after Silent Tactic was scratched with a sore foot on Wednesday. His spot in the starting gate will be taken by lightly raced Great White,the fifth-place finisher in the Blue Grass.
Two of the top earners in the business, Irad Ortiz and brother Jose, will try to snap Derby winless streaks on Renegade and Golden Tempo, respectively, as will Luis Saez on Commandment. … Only three in the field have raced and won at Churchill: Commandment, Incredibolt (twice), and Further Ado, all with similar Beyers. … Potente cost $2.4 million at the Fasig Tipton Yearling Sale at Saratoga, making him the Juan Soto of horseflesh. … Post time is 6:57 p.m.
The pick by “Longshot” John Dobrydnio
“Let me make this simple,” said Greenfield handicapper John Dobrydnio, who has an uncanny knack for picking winners. “It’s called handicapping,” he said. “I like the 14 horse Potente. I watched a couple of his gallops, He’s impressive, and I’m going to use him with Commandment and Chief Wallabee. I might throw in the Japanese horses Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean as savers because I don’t know what they are.”
“May the horse be with you,” added Dobrydnio, quoting the late, great New York handicapper Harvey Pack.