AMHERST — If there was ever a time for the UMass football team to do the improbable, it feels like Saturday would be that time.

The Minutemen have struggled to win games in 2024, and although their two wins – the second coming last weekend – are both against FCS opponents, UMass will take whatever it can get at this point. That said, the team says it has had more energy and juice throughout the week at practice than it has all season, and Mississippi State – the Minutemen’s second of three SEC opponents this fall – hasn’t won a game since August, also a win over an FCS school.

The Bulldogs come in to Saturday’s matchup as the only team in the SEC to have not won a conference game, and they’ve given up 30 or more points in every one of their seven consecutive losses.

Mississippi State is still an SEC team with an SEC home environment, which is plenty enough to be a heavy favorite over UMass (18.5 points according to ESPNBet). But it’s perhaps the perfect scenario for the Minutemen to pull off a shocker in Starkville, especially with their second bye week on the other side.

“Certainly looking forward to it,” UMass head coach Don Brown said. “The weather is supposed to be fine, and our guys are gearing it up and getting ready. You know, the good thing is, we can really let this go in terms of just let it rip, because you play this game, and then we'll have a chance to breathe and get our second bye. And it's probably good timing for that as you look ahead.”

“[Beating Wagner], it was very good for us, for the whole team to have that confidence going into Mississippi State on Saturday,” senior captain Te’Rai Powell said. “So I think that win was obviously a good win for us, but obviously we want to keep building and show a little bit more what we could do.”

Mississippi State quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. is a true freshman, and he took over for senior Blake Shapen. Van Buren Jr. has started the last four games for the Bulldogs, throwing for over 300 yards twice in his last three starts including eight touchdowns during that stretch. He’s also rushed for two touchdowns and been sacked 13 times in those four starts.

Van Buren Jr. has a trio of playmakers on the outside that worry Brown, with Kevin Coleman Jr. leading the charge. Coleman Jr. has 52 catches for 636 yards and five touchdowns this season, and players like Mario Craver (22.2 yards per catch) and Kelly Akharaiyi (256 yards, 2 TDs) are threats as well. Throw in tight end Saydou Traore and his 301 yards receiving, UMass’ pass defense – which is currently ranked sixth in FBS – is going to have its hands full on Saturday.

“They have three good receivers,” Brown said. “They have a young quarterback that has ability, and their offensive line is really skilled. So, you got to get ready to play, playing a team that you really have no experience playing.”

Davon Booth and Johnnie Daniels provide a one-two punch in the Bulldogs’ backfield, each rushing for over 350 yards and two touchdowns.

While Brown compliments the Bulldogs’ offensive line, that’s certainly been an area of struggle for them this season. They’ve given up 26 sacks through their eight games (over three per contest), and average 120.9 rushing yards per game – 103rd in FBS.

UMass’ defensive line has struggled to stop the rush and get consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so there may be potential for the Minutemen to have some success in those areas.

The keys to winning a football game at this level don’t change based on the opponent, but they do become heightened. The room for error is slim to none against a team that is – on paper – bigger, faster and stronger. Brown is aware of that, and he’s made sure his team is, too.

“Got to take care of the ball, minimize penalties,” Brown said. “The formula doesn't change on a week-to-week basis. It's something we got to do. We know what's in front of us, and doing it for one week is not getting it done. So we want to make sure we stay on this path. Take care of the ball, do a good job of playing as hard and as tough as we can, and let's see where we are at the end of 60 minutes.”

The Minutemen are going to need more out of Taisun Phommachanh down the stretch if they want to win any more games in 2024. He has four contests left in his college career, three after Saturday. In last week’s 35-7 win over Wagner, he threw for 129 yards on 10-for-18 passing, one touchdown and one interception. He did add 30 yards and two scores on the ground, but his passing hasn’t looked as sharp over the last few games – most notably in the red zone.

Phommachanh continues to build continuity with T.Y. Harding and Jakobie Keeney-James, however, and he’s looked more comfortable throwing the ball to them than any other pass catchers.

UMass needs a big day from its QB1 and help from every other position group – the offensive line and running backs are vital – to pull off an upset this weekend. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. on SEC Network.