Well, dear readers, the results are in and they are overwhelming. The vast majority of those who responded to my question about the general lack of dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis) have confirmed my observations — there just don’t appear to be that many juncos around this winter. The tricky bit that remains to be addressed is why.
One of the things that can make the study of ecology so diabolically difficult is the fact that there are so many different variables in play. The traditional course in biology starts with a quick nod to the concept of the scientific method. Specifically, the idea that the best experiments are ones that are completely controlled by the experimenter is pressed on the mind of the student. This allows a single variable to be tinkered with at any given time, which, in turn, allows the experimenter to evaluate the importance of that single variable on the results.
This is a very powerful method for getting to the bottom of a question and troubleshooters use it all the time. If a gadget isn’t working properly, start with a checklist of possible reasons (the most likely reason first) and methodically work your way down the list one at a time. If, on the other hand, you change 10 things at once and you see a change, you may still not know which of the 10 things was involved.
Anyone who has tried to get a VCR to work properly will understand the possible frustration in play. If I switch the red wire with the yellow wire, turn off the lights in the garage, make a pot of chamomile tea, turn the VCR power on and off again, change the batteries in the remote, find a small child for consultation with the issue and finally get the stupid thing to work, which was the change that made the difference?
My beautiful wife, Susan, occasionally falls victim to this sort of problem. If she notices that her car is “driving funny” she will often get her oil changed. This is especially adorable if the description of the problem is something like, “there’s an odd noise coming from the back of the car.” Convinced that there is a problem and genuinely concerned that she do something about it, she responds in the only way that she is familiar with. For the record, I adore Susan.
So the big question remains: Where have all the birds gone? I have birds at my feeders, but I don’t seem to have them in the same numbers that I have observed in the past. I would also note that this winter has been somewhat boring compared to past years. For the second month in a row I will record a species list that is four to six species short of last year. Something is afoot, but what could it be?
From a weather standpoint, December was a particularly unpleasant month. We seemed to have a lot of rain and the bad weather seemed to occur on weekends, which meant that there wasn’t a lot of opportunity to get out and go birding. The National Audubon Society’s Christmas Bird Count may have suffered from this trend in the weather because the birders were looking for birds that may have been hiding from the bad weather. This may have contributed to low numbers in the official count.
I see that the juncos, white-throated sparrows and American tree sparrows all arrived on dates that I would describe as normal, and I actually set a personal record for species seen in my yard during the month of November. However, on the page for Dec. 16, I see a small notation that simply reads, “Where are the juncos and sparrows?” They arrived, but they aren’t showing themselves. Very odd indeed.
There is reason to be optimistic, however. Back in the winter of 2012 to 2013, I was terribly alarmed that there were no white-throated sparrows observed at my feeders from October to April. Well, remember that little weather event called Hurricane Sandy? I wonder if that might not have had something to do with the seasonal movement of a species that tends to arrive in late October. The following winter, white-throated sparrows returned in good numbers.
So this is something we’ll have to keep track of. Some readers reported large numbers of juncos at their feeders, while others reported none whatsoever. I’ve noticed more juncos lately, but deep snow tends to bring the birds out of hiding. I would recommend keeping your feeders stocked and keeping your eyes peeled. If you’re really motivated, you might consider participating in Project FeederWatch, or next year’s Christmas Bird Count to see if you can collect some of your own data.
In the meantime, keep sending in your observations and I’ll share them.
Bill Danielson has been a professional writer and nature photographer for 21 years. He has worked for the National Park Service, the U.S. Forest Service and Massachusetts State Parks and currently teaches high school biology and physics. Visit speakingofnature.com for more information, or go to Speaking of Nature on Facebook.