Editor’s note: The Greenfield Recorder has been providing regular updates on the risk level of COVID-19 transmission as wastewater testing results are received.
For the first time in more than six weeks, the COVID-19 transmission risk is considered “high” in the four communities involved in the Contact Tracing Collaborative, which consists of Greenfield, Deerfield, Montague and Sunderland.
“We’re seeing nine clusters right now,” said Public Health Nurse Megan Tudryn. “That’s more than we’ve seen in a long time. … Our wastewater also jumped to probably the highest I’ve seen so far.”
The cluster infections (of three or more people at one site) have been identified at area long-term care facilities, housing groups and Thanksgiving gatherings.
According to data from Cambridge-based Biobot Analytics, which analyzes the Contact Tracing Collaborative’s wastewater samples, there were 2.7 million copies of the virus per liter of sewage this week compared to 1.3 million the week before.
As a result, the four municipalities are now in the red zone with a “high” risk of COVID-19 transmission for the first time since October. Masking is recommended.
Tudryn said the community is seeing a similar trend in COVID-19 caseload to what occurred last year at this time, and she anticipates numbers to continue in that upward trajectory. According to the Health Department, Greenfield saw nearly 1,500 cases in the month of January.
“It started with Thanksgiving and … then by January, everything blew up and we had more cases than we’ve ever had,” she said.
Tudryn noted that with so many people taking at-home tests, it’s hard to get an accurate picture of what is happening in the community.
Despite increases in other metrics, including positivity rate, hospitalizations remain steady compared to last week at a daily average of 3.4.
“The vaccines work from preventing hospitalization, but not from people getting it, necessarily,” Tudryn explained, noting that she is seeing people getting COVID-19 now for the first time since the start of the pandemic.
The Contact Tracing Collaborative is encouraging individuals to reference the state Department of Public Health for guidance on upcoming holiday gatherings. The guidance can be found online at bit.ly/3PgFlWx.
Tudryn added that the Department of Public Health offers free telehealth consultations regarding the COVID-19 treatment, Paxlovid. Individuals with a positive COVID-19 test who are 12 years old and older, are at an increased risk of severe disease and have developed symptoms within five days (even mild ones) qualify for this treatment.
The telehealth service can be accessed at bit.ly/3iO8a0v.
In combination with wastewater testing — people with an active COVID-19 infection excrete the virus in their stool, and samples from wastewater treatment plants can be analyzed to estimate community virus levels — the four municipalities factor in hospitalization numbers, positivity rates and case numbers to determine risk levels. Health officials also continue to talk with nursing homes, businesses and schools to track cluster infections.
The following three zones, defined by the Contact Tracing Collaborative, are used to gauge risk levels of COVID-19 transmission in the four communities. For the risk level in the area to change, at least two measures need to apply.
Masking recommended.
■Cluster infections (of three or more people at one site): five or more.
■Percent positive tests out of total tests performed: greater than 10%.
■Hospitalizations: five or more.
■Increase in case trend.
■Increase in wastewater trend.
Masking encouraged.
■One to four cluster infections.
■Stable positive testing.
■Fewer than five hospitalizations.
■Stable case incidence.
■Stable wastewater.
Masking optional.
■No cluster infections.
■Decrease in positive tests.
■Decrease in hospitalizations.
■Decrease in case incidence.
■Decreased virus copies in wastewater.