AMHERST — At this point, few people who have watched UMass play the last two weeks can’t see the potential bursting at the seams.
All four games the Minutemen have played against Atlantic 10 foes have been within a possession in the last five minutes of the game. Wednesday’s loss to George Mason was the most lopsided deficit UMass has faced at the two-minute mark in conference play at seven points, and the Minutemen still fought back to make it a one-possession game with 57 seconds left.
Yet UMass enters Saturday’s 6:30 p.m. contest at VCU staring at an 0-4 conference mark and in danger of dropping its first five conference games for the first time in 15 years. Realistically though, that record could be far different if not for one or two plays going the wrong way, and most opposing coaches know it.
“UMass is really good and they’re this far away,” George Mason coach Dave Paulsen said while squeezing his forefinger and thumb millimeters apart after Wednesday’s game.
Close games have been an issue for UMass (7-10, 0-4 Atlantic 10) all season. The Minutemen are 2-7 in games decided by six points or fewer, and it could have been 2-8 had La Salle not made 13 free throws in the final 1:07 to win by nine points two weeks ago. When more than half of UMass’ games have been decided by no more than two possessions, it’s hard for coach Matt McCall to fret too much about the schemes.
Several times already this season, McCall has watched his team execute at a high level for most of the game, only to have one or two key mistakes late cost the Minutemen a victory. McCall said the message the last two days has been about the margin of error between winning and losing, and just how thin that line is in college basketball.
The second-year coach said as much as the Minutemen have improved over the course of the season, the details have still haunted them at inopportune times.
“We have made strides, we just have to learn how to win,” McCall said. “You can look schematically at what we’re doing, but at the end of the day, you’ve got to have a focus when the game’s on the line to get your job done.”
McCall turned to Indianapolis Colts coach Frank Reich as a source of inspiration for his message to his players since the loss Wednesday. McCall retweeted a link Thursday evening to a letter Reich wrote to Colts fans, pulling out the line “We believed that if we got 1% better every day the results will follow!” That has served as the basis of what McCall has told his team with 14 conference games still to play.
The message has resonated with a locker room that is both disappointed with the loss, but optimistic about the future. Sophomore Carl Pierre said the Minutemen have very little choice but to remain positive that eventually everything will click and UMass will string together a winning streak.
“We’re trying to keep our heads up and keep trying to compete every day,” Pierre said. “That’s all we can do, keep competing and stick to our guns. Coach has been pushing the message of getting one percent better every day and that’s all we can do, stay optimistic and keep pushing.”
One of the big areas of concern for UMass is that its best shooters have hit a slump just as the games became more important. Junior Luwane Pipkins is shooting just 29.2 percent from the field in four A-10 games while Pierre made just 3 of 10 from long range against the Patriots. Many of those seven misses were wide open shots he’s made countless times before, including two that would have either tied the game or given UMass the lead in the final four minutes.
McCall said he has introduced more individual skill drills into practice to help instill confidence in his shooters, but Pierre said he relies on the repetition he’s developed over the offseason to keep himself confident in his shot.
“I try to take confidence in my work,” Pierre said. “I work hard every day, I worked hard in the offseason, so just having confidence that that hard work will pay off and just continuing with my routine and things will take care of themselves.”
After being the highest scoring team in the Atlantic 10 in nonconference games, UMass is on the cusp of returning to that form, McCall said. The coach said the number of open shots the Minutemen are generating is proof of just how close they are to being a potent offensive team again. The question is simply when will the shots fall through the hoop again?
If the Minutemen are going to break through Saturday against VCU, they will do so against one of the stingiest defenses in the country.
The Rams (12-5, 3-1 A-10) rank 20th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 63.3 points per game, which is roughly what UMass is averaging in league games so far. The bigger challenge, however, is the Rams’ top-10 field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage defenses. Nearly 41 percent of UMass’ shots come from behind the arc and the Minutemen are shooting 35.5 percent on 3-pointers this year.
“At some point, we’re going to break through and we’re going to find the net and the ball is going to go through the net at a rapid rate,” McCall said. “When that is? Hopefully it’s Saturday.”