A deeper look at today’s 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby:
Legend: (PP-Odds-Starts-W-P-S; Fastest Beyer Speed Fig.; Earnings)
Trainer/Jockey
1. (20-1) LOOKIN AT LEE (9-2-2-2; 91; $452,795)
Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie
Horse’s sire Lookin at Lucky had the No. 1 post in 2010 and finished sixth. … The last to win wearing the red blanket was Ferdinand in 1987; post is 0-for-29 since. … Deep closer might be less bothered than most by the tight break. … Jockey has won 11 of the last 12 riding titles at Churchill Downs.
2. (20-1) THUNDER SNOW (8-4-2-0; N/A; $1,627,692)
Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon
Irish-bred’s longest race was a mile-and-sixteenth on the dirt his last out on March 25 when he won by a nose. … Trainer Saeed bin Suroor has yet to have a Derby horse hit the board in seven tries. … … The Nos. 1 and 2 posts have accounted for a combined two wins since 1978. … Stable’s would-be Derby conqueror in 2016 was Mohaymen who finished fourth at 11-1. … The rider is fearless, and that’s a factor aboard a closer in today’s crowded field.
3. (50-1) FAST AND ACCURATE (6-3-1-0; 82; $340,362)
Michael Maker/Channing Hill
Pennsylvania-bred has won three straight races at three different tracks capped by shocker at Turfway Park where he won the Spiral Stakes on March 25 at 25-to-1. Slowest Beyer speed figures of any horse in the field, and that justifies the long morning line odds.
4. (30-1) UNTRAPPED (6-1-3-1; 91; $259,658)
Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.
Well-travelled colt broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in November as the 6-5 favorite but is winless in four subsequent starts elsewhere. Trainer Steve Asmussen has the rep for springing upsets, but his low Beyers and sixth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby doesn’t inspire confidence, nor does his 0-for-15 record at the Derby.
5. (5-1) ALWAYS DREAMING (5-3-1-1; 97; $648,900)
Todd Pletcher/JR Velazquez
Pletcher-trained colt won the Fla. Derby by five lengths in the fastest clocking since 1978. It was his third win in three starts by a combined 20 1/2 lengths. He turned in a bullet work at Churchill on April 28— the fastest of 35 going five furlongs. Pletcher is 1-for-45 at the Kentucky Derby; Velazquez won with Animal Kingdom in 2011.
6. (30-1) STATE OF HONOR (10-1-4-2; 91; $382,548)
Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano
It took five starts for this Canadian-bred to break his maiden, and he’s gone winless in his next five. His three-race Beyers average out at 90, well below the Derby’s ten-year winning average of 104. He led the Tampa Bay Derby but faded to second against Tapwrit, and was a distant runner-up to Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby.
7. (15-1) GIRVIN (4-3-1-0; 93; $874,400)
Joe Sharp/Mike Smith
He’s won three of four but the knock against him is he’s never left the Fair Grounds. He won the Gr. II Risen Star at 8-1 and rallied from mid-pack to win the Louisiana Derby under jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and paid $4.60. Sensing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity from a 12-horse stable, connections switched riders to Mike Smith who’s winning at a 25 percent clip this year (20-for-80) but is 1-for-22 in this race. Trainer has been working to repair a quarter crack in horse’s right front hoof.
8. (15-1) HENCE (6-2-1-1; 97; $462,601)
Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux
His 97 Beyer winning the Sunland Derby at 11-1 was 16 points better than his previous best, a dull seventh place effort at 24-1 in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Owned by Calumet Farm— home to Whirlaway, Alydar, and Forward Pass— and trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. … One of six in today’s field that’s won in the mud.
9. (20-1) IRAP (8-1-3-1; 93; $772,600)
Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez
Another with only one win in eight starts and whose Beyers aren’t up to snuff. The stars were aligned the day he won the Blue Grass Stakes at 31-1. The steadily improving Beyers and six trips around two turns suggest he’s capable of a good effort. Trainer-jockey combination won last year with Nyquist, and in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. The last time a Blue Grass Stakes winner captured the Run for the Roses was in 1991 with Strike the Gold.
10. (15-1) GUNNEVERA (9-4-2-1; 97; $1,170,200)
Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano
Million dollar earner was purchased at the Keeneland yearling sale for $16,000. All three starts this winter were at Gulfstream where he was second in the Holy Bull, first in the Fountain of Youth and third at even money in the Florida Derby. Last year’s Elipse Award winner Javiar Castellano hasn’t hit the board in ten tries at the Derby. Trainer Sano is Venezuela’s all-time leading conditioner who moved to the U.S. after twice being kidnapped. Chestnut closer needs to run into the speed, often coming from last.
11. (30-1) BATTLE OF MIDWAY (4-2-1-1; 88; $290,000)
Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat
French-born jockey was out three months with upper body injuries suffered in a spill at Los Alamitos last fall. West Coast colt and $410K yearling purchase has hit the board in all four career starts and nearly sprung the upset in the Santa Anita Derby where he was caught at the wire by Gormley. Only three horses since 1882 have won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old.
12. (50-1) SONNETEER (10-0-4-2; 90; $284,455)
Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux
Steadily improving Beyers suggest a decent effort, but the last time a maiden won the Kentucky Derby was four months after FDR was sworn into his first term in office. None of the ten that tried since have finished better than eighth. Last year’s maiden named Trojan Nation drew the dreaded one post and finished 16th at 39-1. Kent Desormeaux has won the Kentucky Derby three times and hit the board eight times in 20 starts.
13. (20-1) J BOYS ECHO (6-2-1-1; 102; $349,600)
Dale Romans/Luis Saez
Colt cost $485,000 at the 2015 Keeneland yearling sale and was runner-up at Churchill Downs in first career start at 9-1 on Oct. 2. He won the Gotham Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths with a 102 Beyer that’s tied for best in the field. … Turned in a fourth-place clunker at the Bluegrass Stakes, prompting trainer Dale Romans to replace jockey Robbie Albarado with Luis Saez.
14. (4-1) CLASSIC EMPIRE (7-5-0-1; 102, $2,120,220)
Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux
Broke in at Churchill with a maiden win in the slop followed by a Grade 3 stakes score in July at six furlongs. … Only off-the-board race was when he dropped the rider at at Saratoga. … Won the B.C. Juvenile at 9-2 and trainer Mark Casse rested him until the Holy Bull in January. Off as the odds-on favorite, he finished third behind Gunnerva and Irish War Cry. … Rebounded to win the Arkansas Derby. … No published works from April 8 to 28 due to an abscessed hoof, sore back and unwillingness to train. … The last horse to win from the 14 post was Carry Back in 1961.
15. (5-1) McCRAKEN (5-4-0-1; 95; $410,848)
Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.
Ran third as the 8-5 favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes, ending a four-race unbeaten streak. Has solid credentials— racing and winning at a mile or longer as a 2-year-old, decent (but not great) Beyers, and a good mudder’s pedigree if it rains. … He’s 3-for-3 at Churchill and has had three solid workouts leading up to today’s race. … Can win on the lead or from off the pace; rates early and charges the lane.
16. (20-1) TAPWRIT (6-3-1-0; 96; $343,902)
Jose L. Ortiz/Todd Pletcher
Bettors hammered this gray/roan colt down to 2-to-1 in the Blue Grass Stakes off his 4 1/2-length win in the Tampa Bay Derby. He finished fifth with no excuse. … Colt was auctioned for $1.2 million at the Fasig-Tipton sale at Saratoga. … Loves the mud… Won the Pulpit Stakes in the slop with Eddie Castro in the irons at Gulfstream. … Jockey switch to Ortiz was three starts ago. New York-based rider has 59 stakes wins.
17. (6-1) IRISH WAR CRY (5-4-0-0; 101; $699,460)
Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh
James Scully reports on brisnet.com that 80 percent of the last 35 Kentucky Derby winners finished first or second in their second-to-last race. That doesn’t bode well for Irish War Cry, who finished 21 lengths back in the Fountain of Youth at even money. … He’s the only horse with a pair of triple-digit Beyers— both this year in the Holy Bull and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. … Trainer won this race with Animal Kingdom in 2011. … Chestnut colt seeks to be the first New Jersey-bred to win a Kentucky Derby since Cavalcade in 1934. … Would be the first ever to win from the 17 post (0-for-38).
18. (15-1) GORMLEY (6-4-0-0; 94; $920,000)
John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza
Won in the slop with a 94 Beyer in January but Beyers trended downward in two subsequent starts. … The 88 BFS was good enough to win the Santa Anita Derby. … Trainer John Shirreffs won the 2005 Run for the Roses and jockey Victor Espinoza has three Kentucky Derby wins, most recently on American Pharoah in 2015 and California Chrome in 2014. Chart writer noted he was “a bit washy” three starts ago, nerves might get to him again today. … Ran 7th in the BC Juvenile at 5-1.
19. (20-1) PRACTICAL JOKE (6-3-2-1; 92; $1,015,800)
Chad Brown/Joel Rosario
Trainer won the 2016 Eclipse Award as top conditioner and jockey won the 2013 Derby aboard Orb. Owner Seth Klarman’s Klaravich Stable was second in earnings last summer at Saratoga where Practical Joke won twice. Colt cost $240,000 but Forbes places Klarman’s net worth at $1.3 billion. He can afford it. … Winless in last three starts starting with a third-place effort in the B.C. Juvenile at 8-1 odds. Lost already to three in today’s race— Irap in the Blue Grass, Gunnerva in the Fountain of Youth and Classic Empire in the BC Juvenile. Perhaps racing against the best toughened him for the task.
20. (30-1) PATCH (3-1-2-0; 89; $230,020)
Todd Pletcher/Tyler Gaffalione
This one-eyed colt was runner-up to Girvin in the La. Derby in a nine horse field. Today’s crowded cavalry charge from the gate is likely to leave this guy with lots of catching up to do from the far outside post. Only three of the last 108 horses have won from the three outside posts. Unraced at 2-years-old, his chances are further diminished by having just three career starts. Regret was the last to do it in 1915.
THE PICKS:
John Dobrydnio: Irish War Cry
Mark Durant: Gunnerva
Paul Matteis: Thunder Snow
Jeff Lajoie: Hence
Jason Butynski: Always Dreaming
Chip Ainsworth: McCraken