We’re three years away from the 2020 Census, but already state officials are anticipating the effects it could have on who represents the region in Congress and Beacon Hill.
As the population of the region shrinks relative to state and national growth, the implications are important to issues from school enrollment to the cost of electricity and economic development, according to state Rep. Paul Mark, new co-chairman of the Legislature’s redistricting committee.
“The fewer of us that represent this region in Boston or Washington, the smaller our voice, and the more likely that people in this area don’t get heard properly,” cautioned Mark, a Democrat who represents the 2nd Berkshire District, which includes much of Franklin County.
Redistricting may not seem like a timely issue, yet it’s dominated recent headlines nationally, with last week’s federal court finding that a Republican-drawn map in Texas setting the boundaries of its statehouse districts intentionally discriminates against minority voters in violation of the federal Voting Rights Act.
Similar redistricting challenges in Maryland, North Carolina and other states are still being heard in the federal courts. A Wisconsin gerrymandering case is headed to the U.S. Supreme Court, prompting Richard H. Pildes , a New York University School of Law constitutional law professor, to tell the New York Times, “My feeling is that there is increasing concern within the court about the extent of partisan gerrymandering over the last 10 or 15 years. I do think this is a pivotal moment — a big, big moment.”
Mark, for whom population losses in Franklin and Berkshire counties between 2000 and 2010 translated into the loss of 40 percent of his 2nd Berkshire District, chairs the panel whose staff has begun digging up the latest population figures for every city and town.
“What I want to be able to do this year, is to present a report to the Legislature that’s going to say ‘this is the most current population available, and this is where we’re growing and where we’re losing,’” Mark said. “Using street listings and the local census, we want to be able to do it at each town and city level, and at each county level. I’d also like to be able to present to each member that your district has declined or increased by this amount, and with the state’s total population, that’s grown over the last seven years, the median district is going to be at this level.”
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that Franklin County’s population fell from 71,372 to 70,498 between 2010 and 2015, but was projected to increase to 70,703 by 2020 and remain essentially flat through 2035, dipping slightly below 70,000. Greenfield’s estimated population, correspondingly, shows a drop from 17,456 to 17,113 between 2010 and 2015, essentially remaining flat through 2030 and falling below 17,000 by 2035.
“If you like puzzles, this is a great job and a great activity,” said state Sen. Stanley Rosenberg, D-Amherst, who chaired the Senate Redistricting Committee in 2000 and 2010. “It’s a balancing act,” he added.
Rosenberg’s last redistricting committee held 13 public hearings around the state and maintained a website that allowed people to draw their own redistricting maps to submit, along with testimony. He takes pride, he said, in that both Senate redistricting plans he oversaw didn’t go to court, even though two-thirds of the states’ plans are challenged in court.
The results of the 2020 Census will be used to divide the state’s total population, which is projected to increase 6.6 percent from 2010 to 2020, into districts. But the official Census results aren’t expected to be available until late that year or early in 2021, Mark guessed.
“At least for this year, we want to be able to paint as accurate a picture as possible, so when the actual Census comes out, we’re not surprised,” he said.
“One of the things we’re looking at now, especially with the Trump administration and his orders on immigration, is whether there’s a chance we’re going to under-report people who normally would fill out a Census form, who are going to be afraid to because of the actions of the federal government, and will that hurt us with congressional reapportionment or funding requests? That’s something we’re going to have to worry about.”
Mark said another potential concern is how funding for the Census Bureau will fare under the Trump administration and Republican-dominated Congress. He also raised an issue he sees as worth pursuing at the federal level: that the number of congressional seats has been frozen since 1911.
Until then, the size of congressional membership had grown with each decennial Census, but the freeze at 435 “doesn’t reflect the intent of congressional representation and the idea of democracy, because it’s been stagnated at an arbitrary 435. That has implications for our voice in Washington and for the Electoral College. Who knows? If we can show something based on data and science, as to why people aren’t being represented properly because of an arbitrary decision made in the 1920s, maybe that’s something our congressional delegation would get on board with and want to make changes. That’s something I want to study.”
Mark, who is beginning his first committee chairmanship, admits he’s just starting to learn about how Massachusetts compares with other states in redistricting rules.
Yet, he said, “What I do know is in all 50 states, if any group, community or individual feels the lines were drawn to disenfranchise someone or to prop up a specific person, or if for any reason other than to see that democracy flows and representation is fair, you can be subject to lawsuit.”
Massachusetts was one of the few states not sued for its post-2010 Census redistricting, Mark added, pointing out that the chairs of the last redistricting effort in the state — Rosenberg of Amherst and Rep. Michael Moran, D-Boston — are both available as resources to talk with about the Bay State’s “model legislation” in 2011.
“My plan with data research is to try to make it broadly known what the population trends are,” he said. “If we have a forum in Greenfield, if I can let people know at the end this year that, for example, we’re down by 2,000 people and we’re in danger of our representation being diluted, I think that’s important for people to consider.”