“Really bad.” That tells me nothing. I need a number. And, I need to understand what the number(s) mean.

Prevalence (% of the population that is contagious) and growth (new cases/active cases).

Well, I’ll tell you.

As of December 12, in Franklin County, based on the pattern of disease recoveries, there are estimated to be 285 residents with active COVID cases. That means that at least 1 in every 246 (likely 1 in 89) Franklin County residents has the disease today and is contagious.

A month ago (11/12) 1 in 1392 Franklin residents had an active case. Two months ago (10/13, not that long ago), 1 in 4921 had an active case. (20 times more cases circulating in the population.)

For comparison sake, in Hampshire County, 1 in 331 are estimated to be infected. In Windham County, 1 in 439. In Hampden County, 1 in 112 (much worse).

The daily growth rate in Franklin County over the past week has been 15.6%, far more than the average disease recovery rate of 7.2%, meaning that the disease is spreading and that next week there will be many more than 285 active cases.

Its serious. We were lucky that it had not reached our area like it did elsewhere. That time is past.

We are now in a preventable emergency situation. We have to step up, keeping the discipline of masks, distancing, reduced contact, and our government (local, state and federal) has to facilitate and mandate the behaviors that reduce the spread.

There is a good argument for complete restriction to homes for a three-week period. (Confidently reduces prevalence of the disease to a more manageable level.)

Thank you Mayor Wedergartner for seeing the extent of spread and temporarily closing municipal buildings.

We should not be opening right now. Because of the high number of contacts, places like schools, churches, non-essential stores, courts, should not be open.

The restrictions and subsequent re-opening should be numbers driven, responsive, note political. Our mayor (and city council), our governor (and legislature), out president (and Congress), should have both the information and the backbone to do what is needed to restore the ability of citizens to participate in public activities without health risk.

Transitions of restrictions should be simple and clear, prepared for in advance, knowing that the numbers can dictate either relaxation or increased restrictions.

For store owners and others working face to face, the dilemma we face is that the disease does not disappear by half-measures. There is no possible re-opening if the disease numbers are increasing. That is gambling (and the house wins).I have a blog that reports on COVID status and activity daily by country and state, and every three days by county: https://dailycoronavirusreport.com/

Richard Witty is a resident of Greenfield.