MOSCOW — Vladimir Putin is seizing on President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to reverse U.S. policy on Syria to press for a military victory that could mark Russia’s return as a great-power rival in the wider Middle East.
With Trump vowing to focus on defeating Islamic State rather than on arming militias fighting Syrian leader Bashar Assad’s forces, Putin is moving decisively to oust rebels from Aleppo, their last major stronghold. Just days after Trump’s election last month, Putin and Assad resumed their aerial assault on the erstwhile Syrian commercial capital, turning a potential stalemate into what may become the Kremlin’s biggest success in the region in decades.
Putin’s advance, backed by Iran, is already paying diplomatic dividends. NATO-member Turkey is helping Russia bypass the U.S. by negotiating a cease-fire directly with insurgents. And last month, Egypt, the biggest recipient of American military aid after Israel, declared its support for Syria’s army. Russia is also preparing to forge a postwar transition that will keep Assad in power, contradicting the cornerstone of current White House policy.
“Trump’s election opens a new page that can put an end to this bloody war,” Randa Kassis, a Syrian political opposition leader who is poised for a role in a potential power-sharing deal brokered by Putin, said by phone from London.
Trump said during the campaign that the U.S. has “bigger problems than Assad” and that as president he’d “bomb the hell” out of Islamic State. He said he’d coordinate the effort with Putin, something the Obama administration has so far refused to do.
Putin on Sunday said the global structure of power is rebalancing after attempts to create a “unipolar world” failed. He told Russian television that Trump is a “smart person” who will adjust to being the leader of a great nation.
Putin isn’t waiting for Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration to press his advantage in Syria’s civil war, which has lasted almost six years, killed an estimated 300,000 people and displaced half the prewar population of 22 million.
“The Russians are rushing to create a fait accompli on the ground before Trump gets to the White House,” said Bassma Kodmani, a leader of the High Negotiations Council, a Syrian political group supported by countries including the U.S., Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Russia and the Assad regime view the fall of Aleppo as “the final military solution,” but the fighting won’t end there, it will just morph into guerrilla warfare, Kodmani said by phone from Paris.
Putin’s Syria game is intricate, involving not only Turkey, where President Tayyip Erdogan is still reeling from July’s failed military coup, but also Saudi Arabia and Iran, bitter enemies who are backing competing factions. Still, Putin continues to find ways to strengthen Russia’s hand in the region.
Syria is just part of Putin’s goal in the Middle East, which is to regain the clout the Kremlin had before the Soviet Union collapsed a quarter century ago. Last week, for example, Putin played a key role in persuading the Saudis and Iranians to set aside their differences and agree on OPEC’s first cut in oil output in eight years.
Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria who is now a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Russia is now “a factor” in Iraq, too, mainly due to the counterterrorism center Putin established in Baghdad last year to share intelligence with Iranians and Iraqis.
“For 20 years, people basically ignored Russia on the Middle East,” Ford said. “The Russian role in the region now will certainly increase.”