WASHINGTON — The rebukes of Donald Trump from the holy order of the GOP are as relentless as they are brutal, extending from the party’s living ex-presidents to the descendants of Ronald Reagan — and Republican voters almost always respond to them the same way.
With a shrug.
Even in this unusual race, GOP voters are following their usual pattern of coalescing around their nominee. As they do, the giddy chatter has quieted among Democrats who once buzzed about a possible Hillary Clinton landslide aided by disaffected Republicans.
In a race in which party loyalty is being tested more than ever before, it is holding its own.
Nevertheless, the Clinton campaign is continuing to invest big in luring Republican converts.
Every week seems to bring a new Clinton ad campaign with GOP disavowals of their own nominee, or a rollout of another noteworthy endorsement from a conservative big shot. The messages to Republican voters span from warnings of the destruction Trump would wreak to reassurances that voting against him is not disloyal.
A new radio campaign features lifelong Republican voters talking about their decision to vote against Trump. President Barack Obama, in his role as surrogate in chief, even speaks admiringly of the GOP as he reasons that the path to preserving it is rejecting the nominee.
If the Clinton campaign can’t orchestrate a mass defection, it will settle for a tiny subversion. Even that could be enough to tip the balance her way in some key swing states.
College-educated women are targeted the most. Trump’s history of demeaning comments toward women and his loose talk about nuclear weapons and other national security threats are among the reasons they’re hedging. “We see a lot of Republican-leaning independent women and Republican women who are very bothered by Donald Trump’s rhetoric,” said Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook.
Voters in some states may be more receptive than in others. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, the push doesn’t seem to be doing much. In some polls, Trump enjoys more loyalty from his party’s voters in those states than Clinton does with hers.
But the situation is different in Michigan and New Hampshire, where polls published in the last week show Clinton’s lead buoyed by weakening support for Trump among Republicans. In Florida and North Carolina, where the race has been close to a dead heat, a Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton advancing as Republicans fail to line up behind Trump in the same numbers Democrats are lining up behind her.
Her campaign said it’s creating a pathway for Republicans — some of whom may have viewed Clinton and her husband as political enemies for decades — to cross the aisle. Others are dubious.
Any bump in the rate of Republican refuseniks this year is Trump’s own making, Neil Newhouse, who was a pollster for former GOP presidential nominee and now prominent Trump critic Mitt Romney, said in an email. Those voters still deeply distrust Clinton, he said, and will probably cast ballots for Libertarian Gary Johnson. Newhouse is unimpressed by the Clinton messaging effort, which he suspects is repulsing more Republicans than it is recruiting.
For all her marketing to Republicans, Clinton has done little to pivot her agenda in their direction. She has been unapologetic about continuing the policies of Obama, which conservatives detest. She has vowed to nominate justices who would put the Supreme Court under liberal control for decades, filling Republican voters with dread. She would grow government, expand Obamacare and champion abortion rights.
“She hasn’t done much to throw conservatives a bone,” said Charlie Sykes, a conservative talk radio host in Wisconsin. A vocal member of the “Never Trump” movement, Sykes finds himself tangling with his listeners constantly. “They are lining up with their noses held to vote for him,” he said.
No matter what Clinton — or Trump, for that matter — does, few of those voters are likely to defect.
“People have really chosen a side, and once you identify with that ideological tribe, it is difficult to break the allegiance,” Sykes said. “The tendency is to find some way to rationalize that no matter how awful Trump is, Hillary is much worse.”