Despite a recent increase in precipitation, the Connecticut River Valley region has been designated as experiencing critical drought conditions, which will continue to persist until sustained precipitation over a much longer period of time is able to restore water table levels.

If things don’t improve in the coming months, experts say the region could face another tough wildfire season this fall, just as it did during 2024’s historic wildfires that engulfed some 4,500 acres statewide, including many in western Massachusetts.

“Conditions have worsened and that region is now in a Level 3 – Critical Drought, and that region joins the Central region and the Northeast region which have been at a Level 3 – Critical Drought for a few months now,” explained Vandana Rao, acting director for water policy at the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EOEEA), at a press conference announcing the designation. Rao also co-chairs the state’s Drought Management Task Force.

Last month, the region, which includes Hampshire, Franklin and Hampden counties, was classified as in the midst of a Level 2 – Significant Drought. But according to a press release by the EOEEA, over the course of February, most of the state only received between 2 to 4 inches of rain and snow, which is 1-1.5 inches less than normal. The majority of the state is in an 8- to 13-inch water deficit since last August.

During the press conference, Rao explained that “we’ll need a few sustained months of above normal precipitation” to return water levels to normal throughout the region and the state. She also cautioned that during cold winter months, precipitation may not be as helpful as it seems because it doesn’t immediately seep into the frozen ground and replenish groundwater levels. Rather, she said it often flows off the surface and into storm drains.

The office’s press release notes that the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority water supply system is not experiencing drought conditions as defined within its individual plan, but private well users and other sources of water within the same river basins are impacted by the critical drought conditions, and it is important for all users to conserve water.

Rao said that wildfires are “definitely one of the concerns for us” as at the beginning of this drought there was an “unprecedented” level of fires across the state.

“It all depends on how dry the air ends up being and continues to be,” said Rao.

Because of this sustained drought and its potential risks, Rao also said that the state hopes to get a better idea of whether the area will be experiencing more of these types of droughts as it continues to update its climate projections. Initial projections, she said, indicate a greater likelihood of droughts in the future.

However, she acknowledged that “it’s hard to tell whether this is part of a cycle of if it’s directly attributed to climate change.”

David Boutt, a professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s College of Natural Sciences who studies the hydrologic cycle, also noted in an interview with the Gazette that cycles of wet and dry periods are characteristic of the state and region. But he said that the recent “intensification” of droughts and floods is “more likely than not” at least “partly due to the warming of the atmosphere.”

“What we’re seeing is just like this back and forth between really wet and really dry,” said Boutt. And this pattern, he explained, “is the hallmark of a warming climate.”

As the atmosphere gets warmer, Boutt said the hydrologic cycle intensifies, meaning “droughts are going to get more extreme and floods are going to get more extreme.” And because of the intensified dry period the area has experienced since the fall, Boutt said it is roughly three or four months behind in this wet/dry cycle, as shown by lower groundwater table levels compared to what is typical for this time of year.

The “big question” right now, Boutt said, is how much the water table is going to recover over the summer and into next fall.

Rao said that February showed improvement when it came to precipitation, and she expressed hope that it will prove to be a “turning point.”

If that perceived turning point falls flat, Boutt said he anticipates communities with relatively smaller water supplies, like Northampton, implementing water use restrictions.

In the meantime, the EOEEA recommends that people living and working within the region take steps to conserve water, including minimizing overall water use, following state conservation actions and any local water use restrictions, monitoring household water use and bills for evidence of leaks and fixing leaks immediately, using dishwashers rather than handwashing dishes, only running dishwashers and laundry machines on full loads, not letting water run while brushing or shaving, replacing old fixtures with more water efficient ones, stopping all nonessential water use and being very cautious with outdoor flames and flammable materials.

Municipalities within the region are encouraged to provide timely information on drought conditions, enforce water use restrictions, discourage or prohibit the washing of hard surfaces as well as personal vehicle washing, and establish or enhance water use reduction targets.

In the longer term, municipalities can establish year-round water conservation programs including public education, implement drought surcharges or seasonal water rates, prepare for the activation of emergency inter-connections for water supplies and develop or refine local drought management plan using the guidelines in the state Drought Management Plan.