A horse-by-horse look at today’s 144th running of the Kentucky Derby:
Post-Odds; Starts W-P-S; Last/Best Beyer; Earnings; Churchill Stats
1. (50-1) FIRENZE FIRE (9-4-1-0; 81/90; $669,100; CD 0-0-0-0)
Jason Servis/Paco Lopez
Florida-bred colt from the Mr. Amore Stable hasn’t won in three starts since taking the Jerome at muddy Aqueduct on Jan. 18 at odds-on. Finished a distant seventh in the B.C. Juvenile under Jose Ortiz; Lopez is his fifth different rider in nine starts. Trainer Jason Servis won with Smarty Jones in 2004. The one post is 0-for-31, though longshot Lookin’ at Lee was was runner-up last year.
2. (30-1) FREE DROP BILLY (8-2-3-2; 89/90; $625,220; CD 1-1-0-0)
Dale Romans/Robbie Albarado
Stewards moved him from fourth to third after he was “bothered badly” by Sporting Chance in the stretch at the Blue Grass Stakes. Broke his maiden nearly a year ago at Churchill Downs under Albarado, who will be seeking his first Roses win in 15 tries (with one runner-up and two third-place finishes). His next-to-last prep two weeks ago was a bullet five furlongs in 59 seconds, fastest time of the 52 that worked the distance.
3. (30-1) PROMISES FULFILLED (5-3-0-1; 47/96; $337,280; CD: 2-1-0-1)
Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie
Conveniently slotted next to stablemate Free Drop Billy, Romans will likely tell Lanerie to play catch-me-if-you-can aboard this fleet-footed chestnut colt. Upset winner in the Fountain of Youth was ninth in the Florida Derby. Chartwriter noted he was “washy, hard-used, stopped.”
4. (30-1) FLAMEAWAY (9-5-2-0; 93/93; $704,834; CD: 1-0-0-0)
Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano
Flamed out in the stretch at 5-1 in the Blue Grass and was runnerup to Good Magic. His speed figures have been consistent (93-92-93), and trainer Mark Casse would be making amends to railbirds who backed his horse Classic Empire that ran fourth last year. … Would be the first Canada-bred to win a Kentucky Derby. Lezcano is 0-for-5 on Derby mounts but was second aboard Ice Box in 2010.
5. (8-1) AUDIBLE (5-4-0-1; 99/99; $882,920; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
Florida Derby winner exits the same prep Pletcher used last year with Always Dreaming. Colt’s on a four-race roll, but trainer is 2-for-48 with his Derby starters. Colt sold for $500,000 at yearling sale. … Seeks to be the first New York-bred to win since Funny Cide in 2003.
6. (12-1) GOOD MAGIC (5-2-2-1; 95/100; $1,855,000; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz
B.C. Juvenile winner and $1 million yearling purchase at Keeneland was 9/5 in the 15-horse Blue Grass. Jose Ortiz took him from fifth to second to first and “drove clear” noted the chartwriter. Last year’s Blue Grass winner Irap was 18th at the Derby. Last horse to race in the Blue Grass and win the Derby was Street Sense (’07). Last to win both was Strike the Gold (1991). Trainer Chad Brown grew up over the mountain in Mechanicville. “I was hoping to be peaking for the Derby and it looks like we’ll be ready,” he said after the Blue Grass. Neither Jose or Irad Ortiz Jr. have hit the board in five combined Derby starts.
7. (3-1) JUSTIFY (3-3-0-0; 107/107 $666,000; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Bob Baffert/Mike Smith
The Baffert/Smith team brings its West Coast ringer to the heartland where he’ll show off his triple-digit Beyers. … Won the Santa Anita Derby at odds-on with a 107 BSF but must buck the curse of Appolo and be the first since 1882 to win despite being un-raced as a 2-year-old. “I thought he’d explode turning for home,” Jerry Bailey said after the Santa Anita Derby. “It was his least impressive race. I wouldn’t make either (Justify or Bolt d’Oro) the prohibitive favorite” … Notice that Baffert resembles Raylan Givens?
8. (50-1) LONE SAILOR (8-1-3-1; 95/95; $334,237; CD: 2-0-1-0)
Thomas Amoss/James Graham
Despite the solid Beyer his last out, he was unable to hold off Noble Indy and lost the La. Derby by a neck. Colt’s only win came in maidens, albeit against talented competition — eight are entered today.
9. (20-1) HOFBURG (3-1-1-0; 94/94; $227,950; CD: 0-0-0-0)
William Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.
Some have a knack for getting ‘em ready in May and others don’t. Bill Mott’s seven entries have all failed miserably— 12th, 14th, 11th and so on. … Has the looks of second-tier finisher, perhaps a high caliber dirt-to-turf prep for the Juddmonte/Mott connection that fires on all cylinders on the green grass of Saratoga. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was 11th on My Man Sam two years ago and 14th on Uncle Sigh in 2014.
10. (30-1) MY BOY JACK (10-3-3-2; 90/94 $645,145; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux
Railbirds won’t know Jack if they didn’t see Desormeaux ride his brother’s horse in the Lexington Stakes. Won by a nose at 1 1/16 after finishing third in the 1 1/8-mile La. Derby. Trailing by a dozen lengths Desormeaux used the whip early and got the horse to use all it could muster to win and qualify for Churchill. Does he have anything left in the tank?
11. (8-1) BOLT D’ORO (6-4-1-1; 102/103; $1,016,000; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza
Track announcer Michael Wrona noted during the stretch run of the Santa Anita Derby that Bolt D’Oro was “really having to be pushed along” by jockey Victor Espinoza to keep pace with Justify. … Named for sprinter Usain Bolt.
12. (30-1) ENTICED (6-3-1-1; 93/95; $595,680; CD: 1-1-0-0)
Kiarin McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado
Godolphin Racing might need to wait another year to win America’s greatest two minutes in sports. Ten have been entered since 1999, and none have fared better than fourth. … Beaten in the Wood Memorial at 6/5, his claim to Louisville fame was winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on the Churchill dirt in November.
13. (50-1) BRAVAZO (8-3-1-1; 64/93; $436,528; CD: 3-1-0-1)
D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras
D. Wayne Lukas will be saddling his 49th Derby horse and hoping for his first win since Charismatic in 1999. … Won the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds and was bet down to 5-2 in the Louisiana Derby but finished eighth, notching a meager 64 Beyer Speed Figure. … Calumet Farm has nine wins — the last was Strike the Gold in 1991 — and 15 of 24 starters have hit the board. Jockey Luis Contreras finished 18th in his only other Kentucky Derby.
14. (5-1) MENDELSSOHN (7-4-1-0-; 106/106; $1,961,137; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore
A dangerous wild card and bona fide contender off its trip to the desert to win the United Arab Emirates Derby. … Peeled off a 106 Beyer speed figure and won by 18¾ lengths.
15. (50-1) INSTILLED REGARD (7-2-2-1; 90/92 $294,000; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke
Lightly regarded dark bay colt has finished off the board his last two starts since winning the Grade 3 Lecomte at the Fair Grounds. Hollendorfer ranks third in all-time wins with more than 7,000, but Battle of Midway’s third place effort in 2017 was the best showing of his six Derby horses.
16. (6-1) MAGNUM MOON (4-4-0-0; 98/98; $1,177,800; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez
Another unraced at two, now unbeaten at age three. Notched back-to-back stakes wins at different tracks — the Rebel (97 BSF) at the Fair Grounds and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Odds-on fave in Arkansas took the lead on the clubhouse turn and won by four under Saez. ”Get ready Kentucky Derby there’s a bad moon on the rise!” proclaimed track announcer Vic Stauffer. Owners Robert & Lawana Low win with 40 percent of their starters. Today we’ll see if all those bullet workouts in the morning translate to hitting the bullseye tonight.
17. (30-1) SOLOMINI (6-1-3-2; 92/93 $752,000; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Bob Baffert/Flavian Prat
Owned by the Zayat Stable that scored with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. In the long and storied history of the Kentucky Derby, no horse has left the No. 17 post and wound up wearing the blanket of roses.
18. (12-1) VINO ROSSO (5-3-0-1; 98/98; $620,500; CD: 0-0-0-0)
Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez
Something of a morning glory, Johnny V. got him to come from fifth off the pace and survive a steward’s inquiry to win the Wood Memorial. Lack of early speed might hinder his ability to close from the clouds. … Owner Mike Repole would give up his New York Mets autographed baseball to stand in the winner’s circle.
19. (30-1) NOBLE INDY (4-3-0-1; 95/95; $691,600; CD: 0-0-0-0
Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux
Pletcher’s given this colt plenty of time to regroup after he won the Louisiana Derby with a 95 Beyer, his best to date. Tough outside post hurts his chances.
20. (50-1) COMBATANT (7-1-3-1; 92/94; $388,550; CD: 1-1-0-0)
Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana
Colt’s only win was his maiden-breaker six months ago at Churchill Downs, and Asmussen is 0-for-18 with Kentucky Derby starters.
Sources: Daily Racing Form, Equibase, Kentucky Derby Media Guide, AmericasBestRacing.net, brisnet.com
RECORDER PICKS
Chip Ainsworth: Good Magic
Jason Butynski: Audible
Jeff Lajoie: Hofburg
John Dobrydnio: Hofburg
Mark Durant: Bolt d’Oro